Just starting to get nervous about my mortgage

Mouthy Money editor Edmund Greaves looks at what could happen to mortgages this year, as he ponders his low rate expiring in two years time.

I was one of those lucky b****rds who locked in a mortgage rate in 2022, when things weren’t totally cray cray.

As first-time buyers my wife and I were given a rate of 2.99%. Not bad, but hardly the best rate on the market in those days.

I also made the decision to lock us in for five years. At the time I remember there was an inkling that inflation was about to go – well – a bit mental, but soaring rates were not yet a major issue.

Fast forward to 2025 and things are pretty different. Inflation has surged and subsided, but rates are still much higher.

The average five-year rate is now 5.25% according to Moneyfacts (although in practice this changes quickly).

Currently we pay just shy of £1,300 on our mortgage per month. The best deal on the market at the moment (for someone in our position) would currently cost just over £1,600 a month, according to London & Country.

This would represent a 23% increase in our monthly mortgage costs.

We’ve still got two years left to go…but I am now starting to get nervous about my mortgage for the first time.

Life changes

Our life has not stood still in the intervening five years since we bought our first house. Our costs have gone up.

• £300 a month on a loan for a family car.

• £300 a month on childcare for our son.

• £300 a month on going all in on bitcoin saving into my pension.

It all unfortunately adds up.

I know we’re doing the right thing but that doesn’t make it any easier. So is there a way to cure my nerves?

Where now for mortgages?

Last year, Mouthy Money put together a big mortgage takeover which invited a bunch of industry experts to have their say on what’s going to happen to rates.

The sense at the time was that they were going to come down – but by less than expected. That view would now seem largely vindicated. If anything rates have actually not really improved much at all.

But there are glimmers of hope. The UK economy is faltering, with unemployment rising, growth flatlining and inflation slowing. This is bad in lots of ways but it indicated rates should come down as conditions ease.

We can find evidence of this in the mortgage market. The average rate on a two-year fix is 5.48 whereas the five year as mentioned before is 5.25%.

In the era of low rates, a two-year fix would be cheaper than five, but since rates rose this relationship inverted. Longer fixes became cheaper.

But Moneyfact’s data shows that this relationship is now on its way back to the status quo – with the gap between the two at its narrowest since January 2023.

What does this tell us?

Longer fixed rates used to be more expensive because people were were happy to pay a premium for longer-term certainty. Now however people pay a premium for a shorter term fix in anticipation that the market will see rates fall in the future. This means lenders can charge a bigger premium and people will pay.

But the gap narrowing – and possibly going into reverse – tells us that mortgage lenders think people are slowly reverting to paying a premium for longer-term certainty than they are for short-term wiggle room.

Mortgage rates are dependent on a wide range of factors. Anyone who tells you to watch the Bank of England base rate for news is lying, or doesn’t understand mortgages.

In reality, swap rates are what matter. And these, broadly, are dependent on major global investment markets such as the bond market.

In practice, rates are coming down. But trying to guess one way or another is a bit of a fools errand.

If you’re looking for what to do now, or in six months, lock in a rate – then see what things are like before your deadline just in case the deals have since improved. Any mortgage broker worth their salt should help you do this.

To hear more on what’s going on in mortgages in 2025, check out the latest episode of the Mouthy Money podcast. We were joined by mortgage expert Jeni Browne, who gave us her view on what’s happening in the market.

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